Branded search declining as proxy for brand demand

Branded search volume falls while acquisition costs stay lower

Marketers have long treated branded search as a practical proxy for brand demand. According to MarTech, that assumption appears less reliable. Across the client portfolio referenced in the reporting, branded customer acquisition costs are on average 76.6% lower than non-branded acquisition costs. Over the past month, branded search demand declined 11.1% despite a relatively unchanged auction environment.

Alternative explanations ruled out by data

Normalized data from Google Keyword Planner and Semrush does not support weaker brand preferences as the cause. Research cited from Rand Fishkin indicates users click less frequently on search results overall, yet navigational searches classified by Semrush show no meaningful decline in reported click-through rates. Overall search volume data also shows no corresponding decline that would indicate macroeconomic pressure.

AI Overviews expand rapidly in commercial queries

Less than 12 months ago, AI Overviews appeared in 57.2% of commercial searches for a core keyword query for one client. By June 2026 that figure reached 95.9%. As AI systems answer questions, compare alternatives, and synthesize information before users perform additional searches, branded search captures a smaller share of the decision-making process.

Measurement framework requires adjustment

Search still measures expressed intent. The source states that expressed intent is no longer synonymous with underlying demand because AI inserted an additional layer between consumer preference and observable search behavior. Branded search should remain one indicator of brand demand but no longer its definitive proxy. Greater emphasis should shift to measures that more directly capture preference, including unaided awareness, contextualized share of search, and brand conversion rate.

According to MarTech, any time a long-standing proxy becomes less representative of the phenomenon it was intended to measure, organizations risk optimizing for the proxy rather than the objective itself.