A full-year reforecast rebuilds the remaining quarters of the annual forecast using current conditions instead of the assumptions the plan was written on. It answers where the year now lands. It does not overwrite the plan, which stays fixed as the measurement baseline for the whole year.
What triggers one
Reforecasts should be triggered by broken assumptions, not by the calendar. ORM's Pete Furseth identifies stale assumptions as the most common reason a forecast fails, and gives specific examples of what changes underneath a plan. A new competitor creates pricing pressure and average deal size falls. Interest rates rise, private equity slows capital deployment, portfolio companies cut cost, and fewer companies buy, which shows up as declining win rates. Market uncertainty stretches the time from qualified to closed. A territory redesign leaves pipeline looking healthy while execution suffers.
Each of those breaks a different input. A plan built on an average deal size the market no longer supports cannot be recovered by selling harder, and the arithmetic gap has to land somewhere.
Rebuild the drivers, not the target
The most common failure is reforecasting the output. Someone lowers the revenue number, leaves win rate and cycle length untouched, and the model still implies the original volume of closed deals. A useful reforecast starts one level down.
- Reset conversion rates by stage using recent cohorts rather than trailing twelve months, which dilutes a recent shift. - Reset average deal size against closed-won values, not pipeline values. - Reset cycle length, since longer cycles push revenue across the year-end boundary regardless of demand. - Reset required pipeline creation, which usually rises once the first three inputs move.
Our guide to how to forecast revenue covers the driver decomposition in detail.
Respect seasonality when you redistribute
Reforecasts frequently spread the remaining number evenly across quarters, which no SaaS business actually delivers. Pete Furseth notes that Q2 and Q4 typically run stronger than Q1 and Q3, and that the third month of a quarter outperforms the first two. A flat redistribution understates Q4 and overstates Q3, then produces a variance conversation about a pattern you already knew.
Report it against the plan, side by side
Show plan, prior forecast, and current reforecast in one exhibit, with the movement between them attributed to drivers. That structure lets a board see whether the year moved because demand changed, because pricing changed, or because timing moved revenue into the next fiscal year. Keep grading forecast accuracy against the original calls after a reforecast, since a team that reforecasts often and still misses has a model problem rather than a market problem. The same discipline applies to every downstream sales forecast built on top of it.
Which changes should trigger a reforecast?
A reforecast is due when an assumption under the plan has changed, rather than when the calendar says so. The most common reason a forecast misses is that the business or the market moved and the model did not. Each kind of change breaks a specific assumption:
| What changed | Assumption it breaks | What you see in the pipeline |
|---|---|---|
| A new competitor creates pricing pressure | Average deal size | Deals close for less |
| Interest rates rise and private-equity firms slow their investing | Win rate | Buyers cut costs and fewer companies buy |
| Uncertainty makes buyers slower to commit | Sales cycle length | Deals take longer from qualified to closed |
| Sales territories are redrawn | Execution | Plenty of pipeline, weaker conversion while reps settle in |
How do you spread a reforecast across the remaining quarters?
Use the business's seasonality rather than an even split. Across ORM customers, Q4 is usually the largest quarter, followed by Q2, then Q3, then Q1. Inside each quarter the third month is always the largest and the first is the smallest, and the final week carries a striking share of the quarter.
| Level | Typical pattern across ORM customers |
|---|---|
| Quarter | Q4 largest, then Q2, Q3 and Q1 |
| Month inside a quarter | Third month largest, first month smallest |
| Week inside a quarter | In one example curve, 34% of the quarter has closed by the end of week six against 46% on a straight line |
How do you present a reforecast to the board?
Show it next to the plan, as a range, with the reason for every change. A board will trust a forecast that is consistent, traceable and realistic about its range.
- Consistent. A number on one slide appears on the next, or there is a clear explanation for why it moved. It rolls up the same way from region to super region to the total business. - Traceable. Anyone should be able to drill from the reforecast down to the deals and assumptions underneath it. - A range. Show a low case, an on-target case and an upper bound, so the board sees the expected outcome and the risk around it.
Do this every time and the board stops interrogating each number and starts trusting the process. For more on the board side, see how to present a forecast to the board.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a reforecast?
A reforecast is an updated forecast for the rest of a period, rebuilt on current assumptions once the original ones stop holding. The approved plan stays in place as the baseline, so the reforecast shows where the year is now expected to land.
What is the purpose of a reforecast?
To give leadership an honest landing point early enough to act on it. The most common reason a forecast misses is that something in the business or the market changed while the model kept running on old assumptions. A reforecast replaces those assumptions.
Is it reforecast or re-forecast?
Both spellings are understood. This glossary uses reforecast, as one word.
When should a company reforecast the full year?
When an assumption behind the plan has clearly changed. The calendar is a poor trigger. One soft month is noise. A lasting shift in win rate, deal size or cycle length is a broken assumption, and every quarter built on it is now wrong. Waiting for the next planning cycle wastes the quarters where you can still respond.
Does a reforecast replace the annual plan?
No. The plan is the approved commitment and stays fixed, so variance stays measurable all year. The reforecast is the current view of where the year lands. Report both, because they answer two questions: are we on plan, and what do we now expect?
How is a reforecast different from a rolling forecast?
A rolling forecast always looks the same number of periods ahead and updates on a set rhythm. A reforecast starts when conditions change, and it ends with the fiscal year the board and budget are tied to. Many companies run both.
What has to change in the model, not the spreadsheet?
The conversion assumptions. Many reforecasts lower the revenue number and leave win rate, deal size and cycle length where they were. The math adds up and the plan is still wrong. If deal sizes fell, you need more deals per closed dollar, more capacity or a lower landing point.
Put these metrics to work
ORM builds custom revenue forecast models that turn concepts like full-year reforecast into prescriptive action for your team.
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