Available to Renew (ATR)

Available to renew is the contract value scheduled to expire inside a given period. It is the denominator underneath renewal rate and the base the renewal forecast is built from. Without an accurate ATR schedule, a renewal percentage has no fixed meaning, because the number it is divided by keeps moving.

ATR sets the denominator

Renewal rate = renewed value / ATR for the period.

A quarter with $4M of expiring contracts that renews $3.6M posts a 90% renewal rate. Change the ATR figure and the same $3.6M produces a different percentage without a single customer behaving differently. That is why ATR gets frozen at the start of the period and reconciled at the end, rather than recalculated on the fly from whatever the CRM currently says.

The most common source of drift is mid-term change. An upsell that resets the contract term pushes an expiration out of the quarter, a co-term aligns several contracts onto a single date, and a short extension moves value into the next period. Each is legitimate. Each also changes the denominator after the number was set, so the reconciliation should show ATR at period start, ATR at period close, and the specific contracts that moved between them.

Build the schedule from contract end dates

The schedule comes from contract end dates in the system of record, grouped into the period each date falls in and rolled forward across the planning horizon. Two rules keep it usable.

- Value it consistently. Use annualized contract value for the expiring term so that a three-year deal contributes one year of value to the renewal year, not three. - Include auto-renew contracts. Evergreen agreements with notice windows still carry a real decision point, and dropping them removes the accounts most likely to lapse without a conversation.

ATR is lumpy, and that is not a problem to smooth

ATR reflects signing history, so a heavy bookings quarter three years back becomes a heavy renewal quarter now. Multi-year terms concentrate it further. Renewals capacity, customer success coverage, and cash planning should follow the ATR calendar rather than an even split across the year, because a quarter carrying twice the normal expiring value needs twice the attention well before those dates arrive.

Once the schedule exists, the renewal number stops being a lagging report and becomes forward-looking. Known expiring value plus a segment-level renewal assumption produces a renewal projection months ahead, which slots into the revenue forecast as its most predictable component. Treat it as a distinct input rather than folding it into new business, since renewals and new deals move on different mechanics and belong in separate lines of the forecast.