Somewhere in your pipeline is a set of opportunities that have not changed in a year. They carry value, they count toward coverage, and they are not going to close.
Most teams know this abstractly. Very few have a rule that does anything about it.
The rule
ORM applies a 12-month rule for most customers. An opportunity that has gone twelve months without meaningful activity is treated as stale rather than as live pipeline.
The number is a default rather than a law, and the right threshold depends on your cycle. What matters more is that a threshold exists and is applied consistently, because the alternative is that every deal remains live forever at the discretion of whoever owns it.
What counts as activity
This is the part that makes the rule work, and it is where most stale-pipeline policies fall apart.
Meaningful activity means a change in stage, close date, or amount.
Not a logged call. Not an email in the activity feed. Not a task marked complete. Those record that someone did something, which is a different question from whether the deal moved.
The distinction matters because activity logging is easy to satisfy and easy to game. A deal can accumulate a dozen touches a quarter while sitting in the same stage, at the same amount, with a close date that has been pushed four times. By an activity-based definition it is one of the most actively worked deals in the pipeline. By a movement-based definition it has not progressed in a year.
| Signal | Records effort | Records progression |
|---|---|---|
| Logged call or email | Yes | No |
| Task completed | Yes | No |
| Stage change | Yes | Yes |
| Close date change | Yes | Yes, and see below |
| Amount change | Yes | Yes |
Why it matters to the forecast
Stale pipeline is not neutral. It sits inside the coverage ratio at full value and makes the quarter look better resourced than it is.
More than 10 percent of pipeline has typically not been touched in 12 months. Strip that out and the coverage number changes materially, which is one of several reasons a coverage ratio should be an input rather than a conclusion. See pipeline coverage is not the forecast.
The second effect is on modeling. Aged opportunities distort close-probability estimates for everything around them, because a group of deals containing a large stale tail will show a longer and flatter close curve than the live deals in it actually have.
Setting your own threshold
Twelve months is a sensible default for businesses with long enterprise cycles. It is far too generous for a transactional motion where the median cycle is six weeks.
Derive it rather than adopt it:
1. Find your close curve by deal group. Most expectation should resolve early, and very few groups carry meaningful expectation beyond a year. See how long deals take to close by group. 2. Find the point where close probability approaches zero for each group. That is your threshold, and it will differ by motion. 3. Apply it separately to new business, expansion and renewal. They do not share a shape and they should not share a rule.
What to do with a stale deal
The rule is a classification, not a deletion. Marking an opportunity stale does three useful things and none of them require closing it.
It removes the value from coverage reporting, so the number reflects live pipeline. It excludes the deal from close-probability modeling, so it stops distorting the curve. And it produces a working list for a deliberate decision: revive it with a real next step, or close it out.
The one option that should not remain available is leaving it in the forecast because nobody wanted to be the person who removed it. For definitions see stale pipeline and opportunity aging.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 12-month opportunity aging rule?
It is a threshold ORM applies for most customers: an opportunity that has gone twelve months without meaningful activity is treated as stale rather than as live pipeline. Meaningful activity means a change in stage, close date, or amount.What counts as meaningful activity on an opportunity?
A change in stage, close date, or amount. Logged calls and emails are activity in the CRM sense but they do not indicate that the deal moved, which is why the rule is defined on the three fields that record actual progression.How much pipeline is typically stale?
It varies by customer, but more than 10 percent of pipeline has typically not been touched in 12 months. That share sits in the coverage ratio as though it were live, which is one reason coverage overstates the health of a quarter.Should a stale opportunity be deleted?
No, classified. Marking it stale removes its value from coverage reporting and excludes it from close-probability modeling, and produces a working list for a deliberate decision to revive with a real next step or close out.How do I set my own aging threshold?
Derive it from your close curves rather than adopting twelve months. Find the point where close probability approaches zero for each deal group, and set it separately for new business, expansion and renewal since they do not share a shape.Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 12-month opportunity aging rule?
It is a threshold ORM applies for most customers: an opportunity that has gone twelve months without meaningful activity is treated as stale rather than as live pipeline. Meaningful activity means a change in stage, close date, or amount.
What counts as meaningful activity on an opportunity?
A change in stage, close date, or amount. Logged calls and emails are activity in the CRM sense but they do not indicate that the deal moved, which is why the rule is defined on the three fields that record actual progression.
How much pipeline is typically stale?
It varies by customer, but more than 10 percent of pipeline has typically not been touched in 12 months. That share sits in the coverage ratio as though it were live, which is one reason coverage overstates the health of a quarter.
Should a stale opportunity be deleted?
No, classified. Marking it stale removes its value from coverage reporting and excludes it from close-probability modeling, and produces a working list for a deliberate decision to revive with a real next step or close out.
How do I set my own aging threshold?
Derive it from your close curves rather than adopting twelve months. Find the point where close probability approaches zero for each deal group, and set it separately for new business, expansion and renewal since they do not share a shape.
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