Criteria turn a category into a claim
Forecast category criteria are the evidence tests a deal has to pass before it earns a category. Without them, a category is a mood. Two reps looking at identical deals will place them differently, managers will spend review time arguing about placement rather than risk, and the roll-up will aggregate inconsistent judgments into a single confident-looking number.The test for a good criterion is simple. Can a manager verify it without asking the rep how they feel? A confirmed signature date, a completed security review, and an approved budget line all pass that test. Strong relationship and champion is excited do not.
Write them as observable facts
Each category needs its own list, and each item on the list should be something recorded in the system rather than remembered from a call.
For commit, require the closing conditions to be validated: the economic buyer engaged, procurement and legal underway, pricing agreed, and a close date the buyer has confirmed rather than one the rep chose. For best case, require most of those conditions with one or two still open, and name which ones are open. For the remaining categories, the criteria mostly describe what is missing.
Keep the lists short. Criteria that run to fifteen items get skipped, and a skipped criterion is worse than an absent one because it creates the appearance of rigor.
Criteria are not stage definitions
Stage measures progress through your process. Category measures likelihood of closing in this specific period. The two get conflated constantly, usually through an automation that assigns a category from a stage.
That automation is convenient and wrong. A deal in the final stage of a process with an unconfirmed timeline does not belong in commit. A smaller deal that entered late with a signed order form pending does. Timing is a separate dimension from progress, and collapsing them removes the information the forecast exists to carry.
Calibrate against outcomes
Criteria are a hypothesis about what predicts closing. Test it. Track the close rate of each category across several quarters and compare the categories to each other.
Two failure patterns show up. When commit and best case convert at similar rates, the criteria are not separating anything and the boundary needs to move. When commit converts well below its intended level, the evidence tests are being satisfied by deals that should not qualify, which usually means a criterion is subjective enough to argue around.
Recalibrate at planning time rather than mid-quarter, since changing definitions inside a period makes the forecast accuracy record uncomparable. Documented criteria are also what let a model learn from your history at all, because consistent inputs are what make prediction possible. ORM's position is that inconsistent data, rather than imperfect data, is what breaks forecasting. The wider practice is covered in sales forecasting best practices and the fundamentals in sales forecasting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are forecast category criteria?
They are the specific conditions a deal must meet to be placed in commit, best case, pipeline, or omit. Good criteria are observable facts such as a confirmed signature date or an approved budget line, not confidence levels. A rep should be able to point at the evidence, and a manager should be able to verify it without a conversation.
How are criteria different from pipeline stage exit criteria?
Stage criteria describe how far a deal has progressed through your sales process. Category criteria describe how likely it is to close inside this period. A deal can sit in a late stage and still belong outside commit if the timing is unconfirmed, which is why the two systems need separate definitions.
Who writes and owns the criteria?
RevOps writes them, the sales leader approves them, and front-line managers enforce them. Criteria written without the sales leader's agreement get ignored in the first contested deal review, and criteria nobody enforces produce the same categorization drift as having no criteria at all.
How do you know if your criteria are calibrated?
Measure the close rate of each category over several quarters. If commit and best case convert at similar rates, the criteria are not separating anything. If commit converts far below its intended level, the evidence tests are too easy to satisfy and should be tightened before the next planning cycle.
Put these metrics to work
ORM builds custom revenue forecast models that turn concepts like forecast category criteria into prescriptive action for your team.
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