What a Forecast Accuracy Benchmark Tells You
A forecast accuracy benchmark tells you whether your forecast is good relative to other sales teams, not how to calculate it. The best published figure comes from Gartner: "Only 7% of teams achieve a forecast accuracy of 90% or more, and the median accuracy is 70% to 79%" (Gartner). Older SiriusDecisions research found that only 21% of companies are accurate within 10% of their forecast (SiriusDecisions, via Forrester). Updated October 2026: replaced an unsourced segment table with benchmarks checked at the source, and added how to compare your own number fairly.If you need the formula, the error metrics and a worked example, start with our guide on how to calculate forecast accuracy. This entry is only about what number counts as good.
Forecast Accuracy Benchmarks We Checked
Every figure below was read at its source. Segment-by-segment tables that circulate online (SMB, mid-market, enterprise) rarely cite a study, so we leave them out.| Benchmark | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Median sales team forecast accuracy | 70% to 79% | Gartner |
| Sales teams at 90% accuracy or more | 7% | Gartner |
| Sales operations leaders who say forecasting is harder than three years ago | 69% | Gartner |
| Companies accurate within 10% of forecast | 21% | SiriusDecisions, via Forrester |
| Accuracy with weekly pipeline tracking, against irregular tracking | 87% against 52% | Digital Bloom, 2025 |
| Typical accuracy on new and expansion revenue, excluding renewals | About 90%, reached through heavy manual effort | ORM, across its customers |
| ORM's target | 95% without manual adjustment, from day one to day 90 | ORM |
How to Compare Your Number Fairly
A benchmark only helps if you measure your own forecast the same way. Three rules keep the comparison honest:1. Separate renewals. Renewals are mostly known in advance. Blending them in lifts accuracy and hides how well you forecast new and expansion revenue, which is where the misses live. 2. Fix the point in the quarter. Accuracy measured in the final week mostly records what already closed. Snapshot the forecast on day one, mid-quarter and late in the quarter, and compare each with the actual. 3. Use the same formula. Divide the gap by the actual, not the forecast, and read bias next to accuracy. The forecast accuracy guide has the formulas for Excel and Google Sheets, and the forecast accuracy calculator does the math for you.
Where Teams Land and What Moves Them
Most teams move up the benchmark by changing cadence and inputs, not by adding a new forecast category. The Digital Bloom data shows how much cadence alone matters: teams that track pipeline weekly reached 87% accuracy against 52% for irregular tracking.| Where you are | What it usually means | First fix |
|---|---|---|
| Below the 70% to 79% median | The forecast is built on rep judgment and stale deals | Weekly pipeline hygiene: close dates, amounts and stages updated before the call |
| Around the median | The process works but leans one way | Track forecast bias by manager and correct the lean |
| About 90% with heavy manual work | The number is right but expensive and late | A model trained on your own history so the forecast holds from day one |
Why Forecast Accuracy Matters Beyond the Number
Forecast accuracy is a proxy for operating discipline. Companies that forecast well have clean data, consistent stage definitions and honest deal reviews. Companies that forecast poorly have data gaps and cultures that reward optimism over accuracy. Moving up the benchmark is less about predicting revenue more precisely and more about building the habits that make revenue predictability possible across the business.Frequently Asked Questions
What is a good forecast accuracy benchmark for a sales team?
Gartner puts the median sales team at 70% to 79% forecast accuracy and finds only 7% of teams reach 90% or more. Across ORM's customers, accuracy on new and expansion revenue usually reaches about 90%, but through heavy manual effort. A team holding 90% from the start of the quarter is in rare company.
Is 80% forecast accuracy good?
For a sales team, 80% sits just above the 70% to 79% median Gartner reports, so it is better than most but well short of the 7% of teams that reach 90%. Check when you measured it: 80% on day one of the quarter is worth more than 80% in the final week.
How do you compare your forecast accuracy with a benchmark?
Use the same formula the benchmark uses: 1 minus the absolute gap between forecast and actual, divided by the actual. Separate new and expansion revenue from renewals, and measure at the same point in the quarter each time. Our forecast accuracy guide walks through the formula, MAPE, WAPE and bias with spreadsheet formulas.
Why do benchmarks for forecast accuracy differ so much?
They measure different things. Some count renewals, which are mostly known in advance and lift the number. Some measure at quarter end, when the outcome is nearly known. Some report the share of teams within 10% of the forecast rather than an average. Read the method before you compare.
Put these metrics to work
ORM builds custom revenue forecast models that turn concepts like forecast accuracy benchmark into prescriptive action for your team.
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