How is weighted pipeline different from raw pipeline?
Raw pipeline counts every deal at full value. A $100,000 deal in discovery and a $100,000 deal in negotiation both show as $100,000. Weighted pipeline scales each deal by the odds for its stage. At the example rates below, the discovery deal counts as $10,000 and the negotiation deal as $75,000. Raw pipeline is what reps hope for. Weighted pipeline is closer to what will land. See pipeline does not equal revenue.How do you set stage probabilities?
Set them from your own history. Pull four to six quarters of won and lost deals. For each stage, work out what share of the deals that reached it went on to close. Those are your real odds, and they rarely match the 10, 25, 50, 75 and 90 defaults a CRM ships with.| Stage | Common Default | What to Use Instead |
|---|---|---|
| Discovery (illustrative) | 10% | Your historical close rate from discovery |
| Evaluation | 25% | Your historical close rate from evaluation |
| Proposal | 50% | Your historical close rate from proposal |
| Negotiation | 75% | Your historical close rate from negotiation |
| Verbal commit | 90% | Your historical close rate from verbal commit |
How do you use weighted pipeline in a forecast?
As a starting point for a sales forecast, and never the finish. With odds set from your own data, the weighted total gives a baseline for the period. Compare it with the target. If weighted pipeline is $1.5 million against a $2 million target, the $500,000 gap has to come from pipeline generation, faster deals or upside. That turns a pipeline coverage debate into a plan.What does stage weighting miss?
Two deals in the same stage can have very different odds. Engagement, the number of people involved and deal velocity all matter. Track a pipeline health score next to the weights, and flag deals that have gone quiet. A proposal-stage deal with fading engagement and one contact deserves less weight than its stage suggests.How do you keep weighted pipeline clean?
Review it every week as part of pipeline hygiene. Look at deals whose close dates have passed, deals stuck in a stage far longer than usual in time-in-stage, and deals with no recent activity. Give each one a clear next step or close it out. ORM treats a deal with no change in stage, close date or amount for 12 months as stale. A smaller, honest weighted pipeline beats a big, padded one. For 16 practical metrics to maintain pipeline hygiene, see 16 metrics to track the health of your sales pipeline.Why do stage weights fail?
Stage weighting works when every stage has strict entry and exit criteria. It fails for two reasons.
Subjective stages. When a business is not disciplined about those criteria, a stage becomes each rep's judgment call. Put an objective probability on a subjective stage and the quarter ends with surprises. One set of weights for every deal. Most companies apply the same probabilities to everything in the pipeline. They should differ:| Deals that need their own weights | Why they convert differently |
|---|---|
| New business, expansion and renewal | Different uncertainty, and renewal timing follows the contract date |
| Enterprise and commercial or SMB | Different cycle lengths and win rates |
| Different products | Different buyers and buying patterns |
What should you weight by besides stage?
Weight by what deals actually close for, and by how they are moving. Most deals close for less than their CRM value, so a weighted pipeline built on CRM amounts is inflated before any probability is applied. Movement matters too. A deal whose close date was pushed from one quarter to the next is less likely to close, even in commit. And the change in a deal is often a stronger signal than its current state: knowing a deal moved into proposal yesterday tells you more than knowing it sits in proposal. For the next step up from stage weights, see sales forecasting techniques and weighted vs unweighted pipeline.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does weighted pipeline differ from raw pipeline?
Raw pipeline counts every deal at full value. Weighted pipeline scales each deal by the odds for its stage. A $100,000 deal at 50% counts as $50,000.
How do you calculate weighted pipeline?
Multiply each deal's amount by the odds of closing for its stage, then add them up. Set the odds from your own win history, and update them each quarter.
Why do stage-weighted forecasts miss?
Two reasons. Stages are often a judgment call, yet they carry fixed odds. And most teams use one set of odds for every kind of deal, though new, renewal and enterprise deals close very differently.
Put these metrics to work
ORM builds custom revenue forecast models that turn concepts like weighted pipeline into prescriptive action for your team.
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